Markets, Mayhem, and Mixed Signals
Apr 17, 2025
WELCOME TO THE CIRCUS!
The Fed’s in a Pressure Cooker. Trump’s Turning Up the Heat. And Gold? Straight Savage. There’s a storm brewing in the markets—and everyone from Trump to Larry Fink has something to say about it. Between the political posturing, bond market chaos, and a gold surge that screams “I don’t trust anybody,” this past week reminded us of one thing: certainty is a luxury, and most investors are flying blind. If you're not anchored in a clear framework, you’re reacting—not positioning. Let’s take a look at what just happened and why it matters more than the headlines let on.
Trump wants Powell gone. Yesterday. In classic Trump fashion, he blasted Fed Chair Jerome Powell as “too late and wrong” on interest rates and claimed his “termination can’t come soon enough.” Powell’s term doesn’t end until 2026, and under current law, the Fed operates independently—but a pending Supreme Court case could upend that precedent. Translation: the power dynamic between the White House and the central bank might be on the verge of a historic shift.
Meanwhile, Powell isn’t flinching. He says inflation progress has stalled and the Fed needs “greater confidence” before cutting again. After slashing rates by a full point last year, the Fed has held steady in 2025. But compared to the European Central Bank, which just notched its seventh rate cut since June, Powell’s stance is looking increasingly lonely. And Trump knows it.
While Powell waits, Schwab wins. Charles Schwab just posted record revenue. Why? Trading activity is through the roof. Volatility is the new oxygen. While many advisors are frozen in uncertainty, Schwab’s systems are humming—and they’re not the only ones eating while others hesitate. Schwab confirmed the party's still going into April.
Then came Larry Fink’s “R” bomb. On April 7, the BlackRock CEO told the Economic Club of New York: “Most CEOs I talk to say we’re probably in a recession.” He added that consumer behavior is shifting—less spending, more hesitation. Normally, comments like that trigger a safe-haven rally in Treasuries. Not this time.
Bond traders flipped. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.0% to 3.87%, then snapped back to close at 4.18%—all in one day. Jim Bianco noted this kind of intraday swing has happened only twice in the last few decades: during the 2008 SocGen rogue trader scandal and the day after Trump’s 2016 victory. Translation? Markets are stressed. The quiet money isn’t so quiet anymore.
Gold: Straight Savage. When bonds stop being the safety net, investors revert to the one thing that doesn’t have earnings calls, scandals, or press conferences—gold. On April 16, gold prices spiked 3.6% in one session, the biggest move in months. Rising tariffs, stubborn inflation, and erratic policymaking are pushing investors back toward hard assets. Confidence in leadership is fading—and shiny metal doesn’t need a central bank.
So what now? Some say the Fed should hold. Others say they’re already too late. Cut too soon and you stoke inflation. Wait too long and you risk freezing key sectors like housing and autos. Either way, markets are bracing for impact. The next Fed meeting is May 6–7. Expect fireworks.
Here’s the bottom line: Volatility isn’t a bug. It’s the new normal. The advisors and investors who thrive in this environment aren’t the ones chasing headlines—they’re the ones with systems that adapt in real time, with data to back them and strategies to execute.
That’s exactly what we do in 6 Figure Trader and Advisor’s Edge. If you’re still guessing, hoping, or reacting—it’s time to get serious about the next move. www.CatalystWealthCoaching.com